Analysts split on possibility of escalation

A milestone sea access-forrecognition deal inked between Ethiopia and breakaway Somaliland has pushed a wedge between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been busy with shuttle diplomacy, mobilizing allies against what Mogadishu calls a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.

Meanwhile, the Prosperity Party reaffirmed its commitment to  the deal during a central committee meeting on January 26, signaling an end to the tensions is still out of reach. Mogadishu has warned of escalation “to a different level” if the MoU is not retracted.

Sources say back-channel diplomacy is underway at IGAD; and with other regional conflicts, foreign interests, and shifting geopolitical landscapes, it is difficult to see a way through the impasse.

Whether tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia are going to culminate in dialogue or escalate into conflict remains unclear. In the meantime, several factors are adding fuel to the fire sparked by a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and breakaway Somaliland on the first day of 2024.

“So far, Ethiopia hasn’t come into Somalia. If they do, then that will be a problem at a different level,” Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, president of Somalia, said during an interview with Al-Jazeera on January 22, 2024.

The President said “it would be a different case” if Ethiopia continued ahead with the memo, hinting at the possibility of conflict.