At rush hours Lagos is jam-packed. This encourages commuters to use private vehicles, known locally as kabukabu, which pick up passengers randomly.

Once passengers are inside their vehicle, the one-chance gang members instruct victims to comply, using coercion and violence.

“One-chance” is the name Nigerians use for a form of robbery that takes place in both public and private vehicles when people accept the offer of a ride. It is an organised crime, perpetrated by people who work together, using a strategy of hailing passengers into their waiting vehicle. They capitalise on the transport needs of passengers, especially during rush hours in the morning and the evenings. In Lagos, an estimated eight million commuters and five million vehicles use the roads and bridges connecting the mainland and island.

At rush hours Lagos is jam-packed. An average of 264 cars per kilometre negotiate the city compared to the world average of 11 cars per kilometre. This encourages commuters to use private vehicles, known locally as kabukabu, which pick up passengers randomly. The vehicles fill up faster than vehicles at designated stops, which makes them attractive to commuters in a rush. They are usually cheaper too.

Once passengers are inside their vehicle, the one-chance gang members instruct victims to comply, using coercion and violence. They take the victims’ possessions and may hurt them physically and traumatise them emotionally. Passengers are sometimes thrown off a speeding vehicle. There have even been cases of victims being killed.

Residents of Lagos dread being victims of one-chance. Official statistics are hard to come by, but media reportage most likely increases the fear of the crime. The Lagos state government in 2022 listed it as a crime of major concern.

Public transport safety is a field of study worldwide, but one-chance public transport criminality in Lagos, Nigeria has not received much attention. This is why we studied how the criminals operate and what their victims experience. We also looked at the social situations which facilitate the crime and commuters’ awareness of safety in the Lagos State transport corridor.

Understanding the strategies and victimisation experiences may be a first step towards prevention and an appropriate institutional response. For example, the law enforcement authorities could map one-chance crime hot-spots. Commuters could make some changes to their behaviour too.

Our study

In our study we administered in-depth interviews to 10 people who had been victims of one-chance robberies. They came from different walks of life; six were men and four were women, ranging in age from 25 to 65.