The upcoming elections in Gabon will test whether the country is on a firm democratic footing, or whether it will be business as usual with military men in control, but under the guise of democratic choice.
Brice Oligui Nguema, now the transitional president, staged a coup against Ali Bongo in August 2023. Oligui Nguema and his military junta promised to return power to civilians at the end of a two year military transition.
But Oligui Nguema wrong-footed opposition figures on two fronts. First, he announced the elections six months earlier than the transition arrangement allowed for. And second, in early March he resigned his office as general and presented himself as a civilian and therefore eligible to run as a candidate. He is contesting against seven other candidates, one of whom is the former prime minister of Gabon, Claude Bilie-By-Nze.
As a political scientist specialising in African politics, I have researched and published works on Gabon’s politics.
Since most of the other candidates have no national following and lack sufficient campaign finance or party machinery throughout the densely forested national territory, I argue that the presidential race has been reduced to a run-off between two men: Oligui Nguema and Bilie-By-Nze.
Both men were part of the previous regime. Although the two men agreed to stand against one another, they never contradict each other.
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Whoever wins the 12 April election, Gabon’s people will see a new government run by members of the former one. So, for the people of Gabon, perhaps the only thing that will change will be the end of the 56-year Bongo family dynasty.
The contenders
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