Libya is a nation spiralling out of control. The fragile truce between the U.N. backed ‘Government of National Unity’ in the West, under Prime Minister Dbeibeh, and the Government of National Stability, led by Osama Hamada, in the East looks set to come to an end. The latter is supported by General Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) who remain the key power brokers for the Government of National Stability due to their military capabilities.  

Tensions between the two sides have increased as each government fares differently. While the LNA has strengthened its military capabilities, the government in the West has become increasingly mired in political infighting as ministers look to secure their position.

This dispute has provided an opportunity for the LNA to advance through Eastern Libya taking key land that includes key oil infrastructure. This has left both the UN-backed Government of National Unity and wider European nations in an uncertain position with economic leverage now controlled by Haftar’s forces.

For European states, this once again raises serious questions around the security and reliability of the Libyan oil market. Already, the political stand-off in Libya has contributed to a sharp rise in global oil prices. With sanctions still in place on Russian oil and gas, European nations remain eager to continue their energy relations with Libya, but the renewal of conflict threatens this position at a time when energy security within Europe is already being questioned.

The NOC’s impact also extends to Ireland, as Irish Training Solutions, founded by former members of the Army Ranger Wing, Ireland’s elite special forces unit, has been training troops loyal to Haftar. Though ITS claimed it never had a contract with Haftar and has instead been training personnel for the NOC to provide security services.

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