The United Nations Security Council unanimously voted on 15 August 2024 to extend the mandate of the 12,626 men and women of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis). The African mission has been stationed in Somalia for the past 17 years to support the government’s battle against the homegrown terrorist group al-Shabaab. Despite recent government successes, fighting continues in Somalia.

Why has al-Shabaab proved such a hard nut to crack?

It’s 18 years since the militant group Harakat al-Shabaab, as al-Shabaab refers to itself, rose out of the disintegrating Somali state. It emerged in 2006 from an existing radical network that lorded it over the capital Mogadishu through sharia courts. Since then it has suffered both battlefield defeats and territorial losses. Yet it remains as strong as ever.

In 2012 it joined the al-Qaeda global terrorist network. Al-Shabaab’s strength is estimated at between 7,000 and 12,000 soldiers, making it numerically the strongest organisation under the al-Qaeda umbrella.

I am a researcher and author who studies the war economy, security, political Islam and religion and development. My area of focus includes the Horn of Africa. My book, Horn, Sahel and Rift, the Faultlines of African Jihad, highlights factors that have enabled African jihadists to survive and flourish for decades. Some of these factors apply in the case of al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab has grown rich and retained influence, thanks to six main factors.

Faulty western doctrine

The west and its African partners have focused on the “hearts and minds” approach to counterinsurgency in Somalia. Building democratic institutions and democracy is part of this strategy. But these are institutions that don’t always function in a war zone, and fail to have the intended effects.

This strategy, along with the focus on military strength, has tended to neglect the security of the local population. Civilians are left to the mercy of bandits and …

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