In his announcement the day before yesterday that the Jeddah Platform negotiations to end the Sudanese war could resume on April 18th, the US Special Envoy Tom Perriello said that several recent shifts have increased the likelihood of resolving the conflict. To avoid creating an unwarranted sense of optimism, however, he quickly added that there is no more than a 50 percent chance of success.

This diplomatic rhetoric, which combines opposites, clearly demonstrates that difficulties remain. The impediments of the previous rounds of talks in Jeddah remain; indeed, they may have hardened. Since negotiations were suspended in early December, the Rapid Support Forces have swept through the Gezira and committed gross human rights violations, and the capital, especially the city of Omdurman, has seen fierce battles that have enabled the army to gain absolute control, failing to seize only a few pockets.

There are some indications and statements from the army leadership that suggest it is currently preparing to launch the battle for Khartoum. It is also mobilizing large numbers of soldiers to liberate Gezira, and that battle is expected to begin imminently. On the other hand, there are reports that the Rapid Support Forces are mobilizing to attack the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, after having received a large shipment of arms from abroad. This mobilization suggests that military escalation is more likely than diplomatic negotiations, and these battles will not only have a significant impact on the battlefield but will also determine the likelihood of the Jeddah Platform negotiations resuming on the date proposed by the US Special Envoy and the matters that will be discussed in these negotiations, as well as determining who will participate in the talks.
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