Raila Odinga has run for Kenya’s presidency five times. In each case, he alleged that he was cheated of victory. He came within a whisker of getting the top job in 2022 but was edged out by William Ruto, whose win was upheld by the nation’s highest court. Odinga says he has proof the contest was rigged, and he’s called on supporters to stage protests until Ruto’s victory is nullified. While he has scant chance of succeeding, the upheaval is spooking investors and tourists and undermining Ruto’s plans to fire up East Africa’s second-largest economy.

1. What proof does Odinga have?

He says he has information from a whistle blower that the results were tampered with, and cites a list of voting tallies from all the polling stations, some of which differ from those released by the electoral commission. He wants the results of the August 2022 elections to be annulled, which would necessitate a fresh vote. He also wants changes to how the commissioners who oversee the electoral agency are selected. The Supreme Court unanimously upheld Ruto’s victory, however, saying it found no discrepancies in the vote tallies and no credible evidence that the machines or network were compromised. The court proved its independence in 2017, when it invalidated Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election as president and ordered a rerun. But Odinga, the second-place finisher then, boycotted that redo because he said the conditions weren’t in place for a fair contest.

2. How much support does Odinga have?
3. How ugly could this get?