President George Weah was elected in 2017 and will run for a second term next year. However, the choice of principal opponent is the subject of debate. We previously forecast that the Coalition of Political Parties (CPP) would collapse and the presidential election will most likely be determined through informal alliances between individual politicians instead of parties. See Liberia opposition merger on the brink ahead of 2023 polls. This situation has become even more likely. This week, the CPP was effectively dissolved following the exit of its largest constituent party, the Unity Party (UP). Its leading figure former vice-president Joseph Boakai is therefore in poll position to become Weah’s main opponent. His ability to secure and/or maintain alliances with four individuals listed below will shape electoral viability.

Nyonblee Karnga-Lawrence

Senator since 2013 representing Grand Bassa county.

She heads a faction of the Liberty Party that came third in the first round of the 2017 presidential election.

Will likely back Boakai and look to be his running mate.

Abraham Dillon

One of the organisers of 2019 and 2020 protests against President Weah’s administration.

Holds a crucial senate seat in Montserrado (including the capital Monrovia), which is Liberia’s most populous county and the heart of Weah’s political base.

His defeat of Weah’s Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) in 2019 and 2020 senatorial elections underscores his emergence as a major opposition figure.

Prince Johnson

Former warlord and senator since 2005 representing Nimba, which is the county that produces the second highest number of votes.

Defeated in the first round of every presidential election since 2011, but whoever he endorsed in the second round went on to win each election.

A Weah ally since 2017.

Sanctioned by the US in 2021 over corruption. The US Department of Treasury stated that he ‘has offered the sale of votes in multiple Liberian elections in exchange for money.’

Alexander Cummings

Head of the Alternative National Congress (ANC), which was part of the now-collapsed opposition coalition CPP.

Aspiring to run for president again next year after defeat in 2017.

The CPP failed partly due to his rivalry with Boakai over who should be the coalition’s flagbearer.

His support would be valuable if he drops off in the first round and a second round is held.