Sudan’s three-week war was this week already topping levels in contributing to the region’s unwanted record of churning out forced migrants, joining Somalia, South Sudan Eritrea and Ethiopia.

By Tuesday, the United Nations Refugees Agency (UNHCR) said some 800,000 people had been displaced into South Sudan, Chad, the Central Africa Republic and Ethiopia by the war that began on April 15.

At least 520 people have been killed since Sudan’s army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, clashed with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo-led paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

“The humanitarian situation is reaching breaking point,” said Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for UN chief Antonio Guterres, at a press conference on Monday.

“The scale and speed of what is unfolding is unprecedented in Sudan. We are extremely concerned by the immediate as well as long-term impact on all people in Sudan, and the broader region,” he added.

Sudan’s humanitarian situation is dire. But it is hardly unique in a region that has been exchanging batons in conflict.

Khartoum imploded just as the region had guided Ethiopia back from its war in Tigray. Before that, clashes in South Sudan were churning out refugees into Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia.

And the impact of all this, coupled with natural disasters and economic challenges, has been pushing up migrant numbers, according to a new report launched on Tuesday in Nairobi.

Politics factor

The report notes that the wider Horn of Africa experienced the highest number of migrations in Africa in 2022, with 8.5 million moving within the 12 countries in the region.

The document published by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and known as The State of Migration in the East and Horn of Africa shows the region has 22.3 million displaced persons, who include nearly 17 million internally displaced persons, and 5.4 million refugees and asylum seekers. These also include 4.7 million labour migrant workers.

In Sudan, at least 75,000 Sudanese have been internally displaced.

UNHCR head Filippo Grandi said the region will have to contend with an increased number of refugees if the violence continues.

The IOM report, a joint product with the East African Community and Igad, says mobility in the region tends to be predominately triggered by insecurity and conflict, climate shocks and harsh climatic conditions, as well extreme poverty and inequality.

The report notes that the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated pre-existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities for both resident and migrant populations.