How to Heal Divisions After Decades of War

In November 2022, the Ethiopian government signed a cease-fire with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The international community hailed the agreement as a possible turning point: the TPLF and Addis Ababa, along with smaller militias and Eritrean forces, had been fighting outright for two years; during this time, up to 600,000 people died—some directly from violence and others after losing access to clean water, food, and medical care. More than two million people were displaced from their homes, and every actor in the conflict was accused of war crimes, including mass killings, sexual violence, enforced starvation, and the destruction of educational and medical facilities.

The war in Tigray, however, has roots as old as the nation itself, making post-conflict justice much more complex. Ethiopia is composed of more than 80 ethnic groups. The 1974 military coup that ended Emperor Haile Selassie’s tenure—which had already been marked by repression—kicked off a cycle of violence that never truly abated. During the junta’s 17 years in power, civil war and violent repression campaigns claimed the lives of up to two million Ethiopians. In 1991, a coalition of ethnonationalist groups dominated by the TPLF overthrew the junta and implemented ethnic-based federalism, but state-led violence and ethnic tensions created continued unrest. Ethiopians’ longing for peace appeared to be answered in 2018 when Abiy Ahmed of the Oromo Democratic Party came to power, ushering in a wave of reforms and promising more inclusive governance. But his government’s conflicts with the TPLF only escalated—leading, again, to war in late 2020.

In the year since the Tigray cease-fire, Ethiopians have expressed a near-unanimous desire for transitional justice. Our nationwide survey conducted in June and July 2023 found that more than 90 percent of Ethiopians said it would be unacceptable to move forward without truth seeking, trials, or reparations. They differ sharply, however, on what timeframe to focus on and who should lead the efforts. These differences, the complex historical context, and the absence of a political transition following the Tigray conflict make finding the right transitional justice process both urgent and tricky. Transitional justice processes must begin by delineating the timeframe and territorial scope for accountability efforts. But if these boundaries are too narrowly drawn, the process risks leaving old wounds untreated.