After about two months of wrangling between France and the new military regime in Niger, President Emmanuel Macron finally decided, on 24 September, to withdraw the French ambassador and pull out French military forces from Niger.

This was a U-turn. Only four weeks earlier, Macron had refused to follow the instructions of the putschists who’d ordered the ambassador and French forces to leave the country. He argued that he did not recognise the new junta, which took power on 26 July, and insisted that his forces would remain in the country.

As a scholar of politics and international relations, I have been exploring the security situation and the rise of insurgency in the Sahel for over a decade. In my view, France’s actions have created unnecessary uncertainty in a region already beset by insecurity from increasing jihadist activities, as well as six successful coups in the last three years.

In my opinion, France has made a strategic mistake. Though it did not recognise the junta, it should have maintained communication, especially after falling out with other former colonies such as Mali and Burkina Faso.

The other prominent external actor in Niger was the US. The US decided to negotiate with the junta. Unlike France, it did not label the military takeover a coup d’etat. The US resumed operations in some of its bases in Niger, having secured agreement from the junta.

Macron’s actions could have three negative outcomes for the region. It will hurt the fight against terrorism. It also opens the door to greater influence of Wagner, the Russian-backed mercenary group. And finally it has implications for Europe’s migrant crisis.

The fight against terrorism

Niger plays a significant role in the security architecture of the Sahel. The country is actively involved in and contributes to security organisations such as the G5 Sahel and the Multinational Joint Task Force.

These organisations are involved in the fight against terrorism in the region. Apart from contributing funds to both organisations, especially the G5 Sahel, France is also involved in training Nigerien forces and flying reconnaissance and attack drones, actively combating terrorists in the region.