African countries repay more to China than they receive in new lending

African nations are now paying more money to China in debt repayments than they receive in new Chinese loans, reflecting a major shift in China’s role as a development financier. According to analysis by ONE Data, new lending from China to low- and middle-income countries has fallen sharply over the past decade, while repayments on earlier loans have continued to rise.

As a result, many countries—especially in Africa—have moved from being net recipients of Chinese finance to net contributors. In Africa, an inflow of $30 billion during 2015–19 turned into an outflow of $22 billion in 2020–24.

The decline in Chinese lending has been offset by a surge in financing from multilateral institutions, which increased net financing by 124% over the past decade and now account for 56% of net development finance, totaling $379 billion between 2020 and 2024.

ONE Data’s executive director, David McNair, said the outflows reflect reduced new lending combined with ongoing debt servicing. He warned the trend is a net negative for African economies, straining funding for public services and investment, though it may also increase domestic accountability as governments rely less on external finance.

The report also notes declining bilateral finance and private external debt, trends expected to worsen after 2025 due to aid cuts, including the closure of USAID and reduced contributions from other developed countries.